Prepare for central bank regime change

Inflation-targeting independent central banks have a longer history than most CB regimes Market complacency that current regimes will remain is probably too optimistic Most new regimes mooted mean higher, more volatile inflation and thus lower growth Central bank and monetary policy regimes last longer than expected, but also change faster…

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Money data say, replace cautious optimism with guarded pessimism

Over winter, broad money growth in the largest developed markets has slowed down At the same time, the growth of US large time deposits has slumped If maintained, current money trends point to below-trend growth and weaker asset prices In early January we wrote that broad money growth in the…

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Broad money less supportive of asset prices in 2018

 Broad money growth in all four large advanced economies is healthy, but slowing Crucially, the growth of non-bank financial institutions’ money holdings is subdued Money data point to continued but somewhat less support for assets As we enter into 2018, broad money growth in all major advanced economies is presenting…

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Central Banking – the great unwind

Central banks have always said that the unconventional monetary policy measures they have introduced in recent years are temporary, and they have been keen to restore policy to “normality” when the time is right. As that time approaches, the urgent question is what the great unwind will entail and how they will carry it out.

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The future of Central Banking

For much of the last 8 years, there has been an active debate on what central banks were doing to combat the threat of a second Great Recession. But as the period of extreme monetary policy draws to a close, the discussion is beginning to look forward, and to what the future policy framework for central banking should be.

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