Inflation-targeting independent central banks have a longer history than most CB regimes Market complacency that current regimes will remain is probably too optimistic Most new regimes mooted mean higher, more volatile inflation and thus lower growth Central bank and monetary policy regimes last longer than expected, but also change faster…
There is still confusion about exactly how Mr Trump’s trade war will play out But the US current account deficit is more likely to widen than to narrow If it did narrow, that would be due to very bad news on the growth front The last week has seen what…
Over winter, broad money growth in the largest developed markets has slowed down At the same time, the growth of US large time deposits has slumped If maintained, current money trends point to below-trend growth and weaker asset prices In early January we wrote that broad money growth in the…
In spite of recent victories, populism usually fails, mainly because of its inherent contradictions But this does not deal with the underlying causes of populism The liberal order can triumph, but not by attempting to ‘out-populist’ the populists or by treating voters as ignorant fools Previous articles in this series…
In our previous two articles in this series we have considered the phenomenon of populism, how it operates and what gives rise to it, and how the current state of the developed world has led to the current surge in populist parties and policies. In this article we look at…
In our article last week we looked at the rise of populism in recent years, and explored what populism is, what typically leads to a populist surge and what some of the consequences for and effects on democracy and the wider society are when politics takes on a populist hue.…
Populism has very old roots; and it comes and goes in waves In modern times, populist parties rarely win elections. Their ideas triumph anyway. The populist victories in 2016/17 make this a very unusual time Populism is not the ultimate expression of a democracy. On the contrary, it is a…
Broad money growth in all four large advanced economies is healthy, but slowing Crucially, the growth of non-bank financial institutions’ money holdings is subdued Money data point to continued but somewhat less support for assets As we enter into 2018, broad money growth in all major advanced economies is presenting…
Bond markets move in long – secular – cycles, with at least five since the 1870s After a bull market since 1982, we are now likely headed for a multi-decade bear market However, bond yields are unlikely to reach levels seen from the 1970s to the mid-1990s Bond markets, like…
US house prices reached an all-time high in October 2017 But real house prices are still 12% below their October 2005 peak Subdued house price growth will affect housing – and household savings and investment US house prices – specifically, the median price of existing homes – reached another all-time…
