In our article last week we looked at the rise of populism in recent years, and explored what populism is, what typically leads to a populist surge and what some of the consequences for and effects on democracy and the wider society are when politics takes on a populist hue.…
Populism has very old roots; and it comes and goes in waves In modern times, populist parties rarely win elections. Their ideas triumph anyway. The populist victories in 2016/17 make this a very unusual time Populism is not the ultimate expression of a democracy. On the contrary, it is a…
Broad money growth in all four large advanced economies is healthy, but slowing Crucially, the growth of non-bank financial institutions’ money holdings is subdued Money data point to continued but somewhat less support for assets As we enter into 2018, broad money growth in all major advanced economies is presenting…
Bond markets move in long – secular – cycles, with at least five since the 1870s After a bull market since 1982, we are now likely headed for a multi-decade bear market However, bond yields are unlikely to reach levels seen from the 1970s to the mid-1990s Bond markets, like…
US house prices reached an all-time high in October 2017 But real house prices are still 12% below their October 2005 peak Subdued house price growth will affect housing – and household savings and investment US house prices – specifically, the median price of existing homes – reached another all-time…
I wrote the following piece for my blog on 4th June 2007, well before the rise of ISIS and the Arab Spring. Some of the details are therefore dated and I have made some adjustment in bold where it was necessary. However, as another conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran looms,…
Corruption is a cancer on societies, both in terms of economic and of social cost. It is not enough to tackle the symptoms of corruption; the underlying causes must also be attacked. Both Saudi Arabia and China are doing the former but ignoring the latter. They will therefore fail. Last…
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has a special place for central bank watchers. It pioneered the introduction of inflation targeting in the 1990s[1], and was for many the first truly independent central bank of the modern era, with a target of 0-2% inflation and the full freedom of independent…
