This was an excellent, nay, superlative breakfast. Very good choice of bread, including dark bread, many different kinds of cold cuts, both fish and meat, hot dishes, cheeses, vegetables and fruit. The tea was only bags, but a good selection of high quality bags, at least. Also pastries, yoghurts, and…
On 5th April 2019 I lectured on ‘How to forecast the world economy’ at the University of Cardiff Business School.
The latest Fed minutes imply that QT may end in late 2019 This is good news for the US economy (and President Trump) in 2020 It also has implications for how future QE may be undertaken After a weak second half in 2018, US broad money developments have picked up.…
On 7th February 20019, I was asked to give a talk about my Military History MA thesis, King Oscar’s Gamble, at the Bromma Rotary Club in Sweden.
Business and consumer confidence have recently deteriorated after a strong 2018 Levels are still high, but the trend is worrying Continued falls would imply a longer and deeper downturn in 2019 One of the peculiar developments for much of 2018 was that, while broad money growth slowed substantially (something we…
Throughout the long and tortuous negotiation with Brussels over the terms of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, Mrs May has always known that she has had two very different tasks. The first of these has been to persuade the EU to agree to a form of words which she…
The Bank of England has outlined the economic consequences of Brexit It has failed to apply a ‘plausibility test’ to its results This actually helps hard-line Brexiteers, as well as those who would erode central bank independence Yesterday (28th November, 2018), the Bank of England published a report called ‘EU…
The global policy mix is shifting from loose monetary/tight fiscal to loose fiscal/tighter monetary This will exacerbate the 2019 slowdown already heralded by monetary data Financial assets will suffer For much of the post-Great Recession era, economic policy in most major economies has been characterised by a mix of tight…
