Category: All articles
Lecture at University of Cardiff Business School
On 5th April 2019 I lectured on ‘How to forecast the world economy’ at the University of Cardiff Business School.
Giving a seminar on How to forecast the world economy at LaTrobe University, Melbourne, 14th March 2019
QE without QT
The latest Fed minutes imply that QT may end in late 2019 This is good news for the US economy (and President Trump) in 2020 It also has implications for how future QE may be undertaken After a weak second half in 2018, US broad money developments have picked up.…
Talking about my book King Oscar’s Gamble
On 7th February 20019, I was asked to give a talk about my Military History MA thesis, King Oscar’s Gamble, at the Bromma Rotary Club in Sweden.
Confidence joins money in pointing to weaker 2019
Business and consumer confidence have recently deteriorated after a strong 2018 Levels are still high, but the trend is worrying Continued falls would imply a longer and deeper downturn in 2019 One of the peculiar developments for much of 2018 was that, while broad money growth slowed substantially (something we…
MPs head towards showdown
Throughout the long and tortuous negotiation with Brussels over the terms of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, Mrs May has always known that she has had two very different tasks. The first of these has been to persuade the EU to agree to a form of words which she…
Bank of England threat – to central banks
The Bank of England has outlined the economic consequences of Brexit It has failed to apply a ‘plausibility test’ to its results This actually helps hard-line Brexiteers, as well as those who would erode central bank independence Yesterday (28th November, 2018), the Bank of England published a report called ‘EU…
Changing policy mix to exacerbate 2019 slowdown
The global policy mix is shifting from loose monetary/tight fiscal to loose fiscal/tighter monetary This will exacerbate the 2019 slowdown already heralded by monetary data Financial assets will suffer For much of the post-Great Recession era, economic policy in most major economies has been characterised by a mix of tight…
QT after one year – broad money growth has halved
After one year of QT, the Fed’s balance sheet has slimmed by just over $300bn (-6.6%) Although the US government deficit has widened, broad money growth has halved The Fed will still raise interest rates in December; but ‘three hikes in 2019’ is no longer on Last week, we had…
Lecture at University of Cardiff Business School
On 5th April 2019 I lectured on ‘How to forecast the world economy’ at the University of Cardiff Business School.
Giving a seminar on How to forecast the world economy at LaTrobe University, Melbourne, 14th March 2019
QE without QT
The latest Fed minutes imply that QT may end in late 2019 This is good news for the US economy (and President Trump) in 2020 It also has implications for how future QE may be undertaken After a weak second half in 2018, US broad money developments have picked up.…
Talking about my book King Oscar’s Gamble
On 7th February 20019, I was asked to give a talk about my Military History MA thesis, King Oscar’s Gamble, at the Bromma Rotary Club in Sweden.
Confidence joins money in pointing to weaker 2019
Business and consumer confidence have recently deteriorated after a strong 2018 Levels are still high, but the trend is worrying Continued falls would imply a longer and deeper downturn in 2019 One of the peculiar developments for much of 2018 was that, while broad money growth slowed substantially (something we…
MPs head towards showdown
Throughout the long and tortuous negotiation with Brussels over the terms of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, Mrs May has always known that she has had two very different tasks. The first of these has been to persuade the EU to agree to a form of words which she…
Bank of England threat – to central banks
The Bank of England has outlined the economic consequences of Brexit It has failed to apply a ‘plausibility test’ to its results This actually helps hard-line Brexiteers, as well as those who would erode central bank independence Yesterday (28th November, 2018), the Bank of England published a report called ‘EU…
Changing policy mix to exacerbate 2019 slowdown
The global policy mix is shifting from loose monetary/tight fiscal to loose fiscal/tighter monetary This will exacerbate the 2019 slowdown already heralded by monetary data Financial assets will suffer For much of the post-Great Recession era, economic policy in most major economies has been characterised by a mix of tight…
QT after one year – broad money growth has halved
After one year of QT, the Fed’s balance sheet has slimmed by just over $300bn (-6.6%) Although the US government deficit has widened, broad money growth has halved The Fed will still raise interest rates in December; but ‘three hikes in 2019’ is no longer on Last week, we had…