Confidence joins money in pointing to weaker 2019
Business and consumer confidence have recently deteriorated after a strong 2018 Levels are still high, but the trend is worrying Continued falls would imply a longer and deeper downturn in 2019 One of the peculiar developments for much of 2018 was that, while broad money growth slowed substantially (something we…
MPs head towards showdown
Throughout the long and tortuous negotiation with Brussels over the terms of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, Mrs May has always known that she has had two very different tasks. The first of these has been to persuade the EU to agree to a form of words which she…
Bank of England threat – to central banks
The Bank of England has outlined the economic consequences of Brexit It has failed to apply a ‘plausibility test’ to its results This actually helps hard-line Brexiteers, as well as those who would erode central bank independence Yesterday (28th November, 2018), the Bank of England published a report called ‘EU…
Changing policy mix to exacerbate 2019 slowdown
The global policy mix is shifting from loose monetary/tight fiscal to loose fiscal/tighter monetary This will exacerbate the 2019 slowdown already heralded by monetary data Financial assets will suffer For much of the post-Great Recession era, economic policy in most major economies has been characterised by a mix of tight…
QT after one year – broad money growth has halved
After one year of QT, the Fed’s balance sheet has slimmed by just over $300bn (-6.6%) Although the US government deficit has widened, broad money growth has halved The Fed will still raise interest rates in December; but ‘three hikes in 2019’ is no longer on Last week, we had…
Tulip Inn, Schiphol, Amsterdam 2 November 2018
A fairly small, but very nicely varied buffet. Excellent choice of breads, but weak on the vegetables. Good selection of cold cuts. Nothing special, but perfectly adequate, and therefore clearly 5/10
Giving a seminar at the University of Xiamen Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, 12 October 2018
This was also on ‘Challenges facing central banks’
Lecturing at the University of Nottingham, Ningbo, China, 10 October 2018
This lecture was on ‘Challenges facing central banks’
Lecturing at the National University of Mongolia, 3 October 2018
I spoke on ‘The global trade conflict and its impact on central bank monetary policy’
Lecturing to the University of Warwick Summer School at St Mary’s University, Twickenham
I spoke on The economic and social consequences of financing government spending through central banks.