Articles

Into a secular bond bear market

Bond markets move in long – secular – cycles, with at least five since the 1870s After a bull market since 1982, we are now likely headed for a multi-decade bear market However, bond yields are unlikely to reach levels seen from the 1970s to the mid-1990s Bond markets, like…

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US real house prices – the elusive recovery

US house prices reached an all-time high in October 2017 But real house prices are still 12% below their October 2005 peak Subdued house price growth will affect housing – and household savings and investment US house prices – specifically, the median price of existing homes – reached another all-time…

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On 14-15 November, Gabriel Stein spoke at the Prestel & Partner Family Office Forum in Zurich

I spoke on The Next Secular Bond Bear Market – Comment to follow here

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Take the side of the Persians and the Shi’a – update

I wrote the following piece for my blog on 4th June 2007, well before the rise of ISIS and the Arab Spring. Some of the details are therefore dated and I have made some adjustment in bold where it was necessary. However, as another conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran looms,…

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Gabriel Stein interviewed on Linear TV

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How not to eliminate corruption

Corruption is a cancer on societies, both in terms of economic and of social cost. It is not enough to tackle the symptoms of corruption; the underlying causes must also be attacked. Both Saudi Arabia and China are doing the former but ignoring the latter. They will therefore fail. Last…

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RBNZ – first in, first out?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has a special place for central bank watchers.  It pioneered the introduction of inflation targeting in the 1990s[1], and was for many the first truly independent central bank of the modern era, with a target of 0-2% inflation and the full freedom of independent…

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The future of digital currencies

Digital currencies – sometimes called cryptocurrencies – are suddenly much in the news. What is behind this, and what is the future for this new form of finance?

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Central Banking – Responsibility without Power

So far in this series of articles, we have considered the immediate challenges in front of central banks, which in a nutshell revolve around the normalisation of monetary policy and the re‑establishment of a more orthodox relationship with markets.  In this final article we consider the longer term outlook, once…

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Central Banking – the consequences of QT

With the US Federal Reserve widely expected to start the process of shrinking its balance sheet in the next few months – a process that has been christened Quantitative Tightening or QT – we consider the consequences for economies and markets of the approaching normalisation.

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