An inner city renaissance
The post-COVID-19 world will see an increase in distance-working. But not everyone can or wants to work from home. Offices will remain but there will be less demand for them. Surplus CBD office space can be converted to residential use, with multiple benefits It always feels silly to intentionally position…
The recovery begins
Economic data remains weak and Q2 GDP numbers will be awful almost everywhere But confidence is rising, if from low levels and frequently rising more than expected It is difficult to spot real time turning points, but it does seem that the recovery has begun Q2 GDP data will begin…
Further on why inflation
Output growth in the second half of 2020 and 2021 is likely to be well above trend Current inflation data is meaningless, but 2021 and 2022 will see high inflation This assumes that global lockdowns end over the summer This is a follow-up to The case for higher inflation published…
The case for higher inflation
Over the past two months, broad money growth has surged in key world economies This monetary stimulus, part of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, will remain in place Sustained double-digit broad money growth is inconsistent with subdued inflation (It is more than a year since I last published a…
Gabriel Stein interviewed on MNB (Mongolian national broadcaster) World
In October 2019, I was interviewed by Cycle, a programme on MNB World. We discussed the world economy as well as that of Mongolia.
Speaking at The Sulphur Institute World Symposium 2019 in Prague,16 April
Lecture at University of Cardiff Business School
On 5th April 2019 I lectured on ‘How to forecast the world economy’ at the University of Cardiff Business School.
Giving a seminar on How to forecast the world economy at LaTrobe University, Melbourne, 14th March 2019
QE without QT
The latest Fed minutes imply that QT may end in late 2019 This is good news for the US economy (and President Trump) in 2020 It also has implications for how future QE may be undertaken After a weak second half in 2018, US broad money developments have picked up.…
Talking about my book King Oscar’s Gamble
On 7th February 20019, I was asked to give a talk about my Military History MA thesis, King Oscar’s Gamble, at the Bromma Rotary Club in Sweden.