Articles

More on the new Fed policy

The new policy of average inflation targeting involves a loss of clarity. Its credibility is questionable. It means rather higher inflation than markets currently expect. Last month the Fed switched to alternative inflation targeting (AIT), a change covered in a Stein Brothers Comment at the time. However, the change bears…

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Average inflation targeting > higher inflation

Markets expect Chairman Powell to signal a shift towards ‘average inflation targeting’ AIT makes sense in many ways, but also has weaknesses The medium-term effect will be an acceptance of higher inflation  Later today, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will address (virtually, needless to say) the annual Kansas City Federal Reserve…

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An inner city renaissance

The post-COVID-19 world will see an increase in distance-working. But not everyone can or wants to work from home. Offices will remain but there will be less demand for them. Surplus CBD office space can be converted to residential use, with multiple benefits It always feels silly to intentionally position…

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The recovery begins

Economic data remains weak and Q2 GDP numbers will be awful almost everywhere But confidence is rising, if from low levels and frequently rising more than expected  It is difficult to spot real time turning points, but it does seem that the recovery has begun Q2 GDP data will begin…

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Further on why inflation

Output growth in the second half of 2020 and 2021 is likely to be well above trend Current inflation data is meaningless, but 2021 and 2022 will see high inflation  This assumes that global lockdowns end over the summer This is a follow-up to The case for higher inflation published…

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The case for higher inflation

Over the past two months, broad money growth has surged in key world economies This monetary stimulus, part of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, will remain in place Sustained double-digit broad money growth is inconsistent with subdued inflation (It is more than a year since I last published a…

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Gabriel Stein interviewed on MNB (Mongolian national broadcaster) World

In October 2019, I was interviewed by Cycle, a programme on MNB World. We discussed the world economy as well as that of Mongolia.

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Speaking at The Sulphur Institute World Symposium 2019 in Prague,16 April

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Lecture at University of Cardiff Business School

On 5th April 2019 I lectured on ‘How to forecast the world economy’ at the University of Cardiff Business School.

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Giving a seminar on How to forecast the world economy at LaTrobe University, Melbourne, 14th March 2019

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