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Further on why inflation

Output growth in the second half of 2020 and 2021 is likely to be well above trend Current inflation data is meaningless, but 2021 and 2022 will see high inflation  This assumes that global lockdowns end over the summer This is a follow-up to The case for higher inflation published…

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The case for higher inflation

Over the past two months, broad money growth has surged in key world economies This monetary stimulus, part of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, will remain in place Sustained double-digit broad money growth is inconsistent with subdued inflation (It is more than a year since I last published a…

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Gabriel Stein interviewed on MNB (Mongolian national broadcaster) World

In October 2019, I was interviewed by Cycle, a programme on MNB World. We discussed the world economy as well as that of Mongolia.

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Speaking at The Sulphur Institute World Symposium 2019 in Prague,16 April

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Lecture at University of Cardiff Business School

On 5th April 2019 I lectured on ‘How to forecast the world economy’ at the University of Cardiff Business School.

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Giving a seminar on How to forecast the world economy at LaTrobe University, Melbourne, 14th March 2019

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QE without QT

The latest Fed minutes imply that QT may end in late 2019 This is good news for the US economy (and President Trump) in 2020 It also has implications for how future QE may be undertaken After a weak second half in 2018, US broad money developments have picked up.…

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Talking about my book King Oscar’s Gamble

On 7th February 20019, I was asked to give a talk about my Military History MA thesis, King Oscar’s Gamble, at the Bromma Rotary Club in Sweden.

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Confidence joins money in pointing to weaker 2019

Business and consumer confidence have recently deteriorated after a strong 2018 Levels are still high, but the trend is worrying Continued falls would imply a longer and deeper downturn in 2019 One of the peculiar developments for much of 2018 was that, while broad money growth slowed substantially (something we…

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MPs head towards showdown

Throughout the long and tortuous negotiation with Brussels over the terms of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, Mrs May has always known that she has had two very different tasks. The first of these has been to persuade the EU to agree to a form of words which she…

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