US consumer and corporate loan growth are picking up The Fed ignores money, pays attention to credit Central banks say one thing, do another US broad money growth is accelerating again after easing somewhat in late 2020.[1] In the year to February, broad money grew by 14.1%. While this was the…
Markets have woken up to the inflation risk Central bankers, however, display less concern But markets may still underestimate the extent of coming inflation Bond yields have begun to rise and equity markets have fallen, both developments apparently because market actors have woken up to the risk of higher inflation.…
European and US broad money growth is picking up, Chinese and Japanese is weaker. Unless private sector demand to hold cash is limitless, money has to go somewhere. This means continued asset price inflation, or rising consumer price inflation, or both. Late 2020 saw a dichotomy in global broad money…
Recent inflation data is generally weakening.But the pandemic and various degrees of lockdowns make CPI data meaninglessBusiness and consumer surveys are beginning to hint at coming price rises The end of the month is usually when countries publish updated inflation numbers. Latest data show price pressures in the largest economies…
The second wave of the pandemic means no V-shaped recovery But it also prolongs fiscal and monetary stimuli Hence, inflation will still accelerate — and probably in the long term as well Over the spring and summer, I made two forecasts in these pages. One was that the world economy…
The hotel management is very covid-aware. You’ll find hand sanitizers everywhere and especially in the restaurant. The breakfast buffet is divided into two desks and the lines are well organised. The number of tables is reduced to create distance between guests. You can ask to be served at the table if…
Ok, it is a bit unfair to show some of the breakfast already eaten, but I forgot to take pictures beforehand. It certainly is difficult to judge a breakfast in these days of the COVID-19 pandemic. No buffet, just a set menu to choose from. That tends to skew both…
The new policy of average inflation targeting involves a loss of clarity. Its credibility is questionable. It means rather higher inflation than markets currently expect. Last month the Fed switched to alternative inflation targeting (AIT), a change covered in a Stein Brothers Comment at the time. However, the change bears…
Markets expect Chairman Powell to signal a shift towards ‘average inflation targeting’ AIT makes sense in many ways, but also has weaknesses The medium-term effect will be an acceptance of higher inflation Later today, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will address (virtually, needless to say) the annual Kansas City Federal Reserve…
With the post-pandemic arrangements, there isn’t very much you can write about breakfasts, at least in Scotland. They are all pretty similar, you order at the table, either basic (toast, preserves et cetera) or the “full Scottish”. So the difference boils down to service. Today’s breakfast was a reasonable average,…
